Ozzie is nicely poistioned in a descending wedge which is bearish. A break of the wedge and clearing the 0.8900 barrier should produce a run to the 0.8790 where the .618 fib, strong support and the S5 are in confluence. Commodities are strong however, and that leaves the upside risk at 0.8950. A break of that, targets a move back to the 0.9021 area.
EurUsd has cleanly reversed and do to the failure of the FOMC to continue the move the dollar is now strengthening as has been expected for some time. we are currently at the 6th support (S6) and the 1.2965 suppport. we have an unsquared area at 1.3050 that might get filled on any retracement and the .382 retracement is at 1.3055. Watching for a bounce and then a move to the .270 fib extension at 1.2872.
All eyes are waiting for FOMC. Would expect some ranging today ahead of the FOMC announcement. Currently sitting on support at 1.3120 as the market has given all of the NFP reaction back and then some. Immediate target is the S4 at 1.3100. If the cross can break south look for 1.2956 as the next big target. There is a possibility of a move up to create the right shoulder of a head and shoulders in the mix and of course depending on the FOMC a reaction to that. Caution is advised today (as everyday).
The FOMC is Wed and traders are awaiting any material change in the language of the Fed’s assessment of the US’s economic condition, both current and forward-looking. The EurUsd retraced more than 100 pips from the Friday high and we are currently building what looks suspiciously like a Bull Flag. We are looking at going long the EurUsd near 1.3205 where a 618 Aug 5 low resides as well as a 1.618 extension confluences from Friday’s top.
Watch for the EURUSD to stall or stop after the Non Farm Payroll reaction at or near 1.3344. This is the 6th resistance level from the bottom of this leg and has confluence from the former trend line there as well. Further upside target is 1.3474 and of course the even number at 1.3400 is a barrier. Downside is to squareup back to 1.3200.
Ozzie might have one more push to the upside in it. Currently tested the 0.9175 Resistance. The 1.618 Fib EXTENSION is within grasp and 0.9230 is the next resistance. Further target is the R7. A break down of the 0.9115 trendline could lead to a downside target of 0.9061.