Seeing some profit taking and potential run back to the trendline ( 1.3124) after taking out the 1.270 fib extension and a high of 1.3263. Looking for a better fill and then a nice quick run to that target.
The EURUSD took out our intermediate target from yesterday and fell just shy of our outer target @ 1.3277, We have since seen a pullback to the former high at 1.3196. If we get a bounce here we are targeting the 1.3277 still and then the 1.3312 (.750 Fib extension). The R6 and 1.3400 are not out of the equation in the next day or so. Downside target might be a bull flag build to the 1.3130.
We have come down to the .382 retracement of the last leg and bounced. Oridnarily we would look to build a bear flag and then go further to the .500 fib. Looking at the chart however, there is a large consolidation area between the .382 and .500 fib which could stall the cross and leave another consolidation. Will really depend on how much Friday squaring up takes place and since the GDP announcement was today, many traders were already flat so it may not need to square at the .500.
Be very careful as the GDP report is out and any substantial deviation in the forecast will inevitably cause wild swings for or against the USD. Better perhaps to stand aside. The good news, is that the report will help to establish the market’s direction for next week, although I’ll still be looking for any moves to be limited in their price appreciation or depreciation extensions until the NFP report, and its numbers, and the market’s reaction to those numbers to “settle”.
The EURUSD is still trying to move northward to the 1.3110 target (1.270 fib extension). Currently consolidating so watch for a breakout to get that target. Downside risk is at 1.2938 ( R3 and .618 fib retracement).
I have attached a AUD Daily Chart. We have a potential large reversal in and around this area of .9100 . This is a beautiful Gartley pattern. We got within 30 pips, which on a daily is acceptable. I would still expect to hit .9110 to complete the ABCD.
The rf10 could be the early entry on this. If indeed we do reverse, a move back to the 50%retrace at .8591 should be a minimum.
US Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Fall Slightly which should be bearish for the USD. During Fundamental Announcements a different strategy is to trade a NON USD currency cross after the reaction. The EJ is poised to continue the up move to the 618 and 786 FIB EXTENSIONS after a pullback. Targets are the 114.40 and 114.86. downside target is the 113.00 at the trendline.