A great easy read from one of our hedge fund managers
PDF file here
Quote of the week. “He who is not courageous enough to take risks will accomplish nothing in life.” –Muhammad Ali
Weekly Tip. If you and your partner aren't married, it might be prudent to create a domestic partnership agreement that states how expenses are shared, how assets are owned, and how those assets should be distributed in the event of your death(s) or the dissolution of the relationship.
CONSUMER SENTIMENT HITS A 4-YEAR PEAK
May's initial Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment survey came in with an index reading of 77.8, the highest mark since January 2008. The current economic conditions sub-index rose to 87.3 from last month's final 82.9 reading. Descending oil and gas prices may have been factors promoting some optimism.1
BIGGEST DROP IN PPI IN 6 MONTHS
Falling energy prices influenced this development as well. Producer prices retreated 0.2% in April according to the Labor Department. Economists surveyed by Reuters had forecast no change. The bulk of the retreat was attributed to the 1.4% April drop in energy costs. The PPI has only risen 1.9% in the last 12 months, the smallest annualized wholesale price inflation recorded since October 2009.2,3
GOLD & OIL PRICES RETREAT
After anxieties emerged last week about a China slowdown, the broad commodities market took a hit. So at Friday's close, gold had fallen 3.72% across five trading days to $1,584.00 per ounce while crude futures had slipped 2.40% to $96.13 a barrel. As of Friday evening, gold was +1.10% YTD and oil was -2.73% YTD.2
NEW DOUBTS IN THE EU AFFECT STOCKS
Eurozone elections brought new worries about whether Greece would abide by austerity cuts and stick with the euro. Efforts to form a coalition government in Greece stalled last week, and French president Nicolas Sarkozy was defeated in his reelection bid by socialist candidate Francois Hollande. Factor in the usual spring thoughts about whether stocks are ready to pull back, and the weekly losses were as follows: S&P 500, -1.15% to 1,353.39; DJIA, -1.67% to 12,820.60; NASDAQ, -0.76% to 2,933.82.2,4,8
THIS WEEK: The Conference Board's April consumer confidence index and new initial claims figures are out Thursday. As Facebook starts trading on Friday, a G8 summit also starts at Camp David
WHAT Forex Target Traders SEE: We are currently sitting @ 1.2923 on the S5 support after breaking through a significant day chart bottom. I am using a day chart trens since the 240 is too steep and the trend is really easy to see on a day chart. Looking to continue down to the 1.270 Fib extension @ 1.2822. A break lower and we will look to the 1.2695 area ( S6 and 1.618 extension) .
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$USDJPY
WHAT Forex Target Traders SEE: We are currently @ 79.92 after a bounce on the bottom. While it appears that a bottom has been established we still are in the downtrend and building a descending wedge – both are bearish for the cross. I will not be totally sold on the Bulls until the .500 fibo is taken out @ 80.62. If the cross were to break the bottom the target would be the 78.00 area – a pretty big move! Will look to sell on the rallies up to the Trendline.
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$GBPUSD
WHAT Forex Target Traders SEE: Cable is currently @ 1.6075 in a strong up trend and a very small correction comparatively. Since it cannot find a bottom it is going to be difficult to look for a big bullish move even though it is in a uptrend since traders will be skittish about placing buys until the bottom gets established. It may just go flat until it can set the bottom. We may have found some support here off the former top? This might just be a large Bull flag. A break to the downside targets the R3 @ 1.5983 – a bounce here targets the top @ 1.6303
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$AUDUSD – A great smooth currency for Newbie’s!
WHAT Forex Target Traders SEE: We are currently @ 1.0031 and sitting near the bottom of the day chart trend wall. This is a critical area for direction. A bounce around 0.9964 would take it back to the R4/.618 Fibo @ 1.0197.
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There is No “Holy Grail” in Forex trading systems. Do not use our research or any other trading system without proper research on the asset.
This is an opinion ONLY - and not a trade call, but a study that may lead you to a trade. I do not know whether this will transpire or not so use your own judgment.
Currently USDCAD is @ 0.9985 and has broken out of the uptrend. We are now bearish on the cross. We are now looking for the S3 / 0.9919 after the break of the S2 support @ 0.9974. Lower targets are the .786 Fibo @ 0.9878 area. A bounce would take it back to the 1.0008 resistance.
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